Good Wednesday afternoon.
Last week I taught a room full of business leaders how to build AI tools from scratch. Two days. Ten people. Three live case studies. Two working apps built on the call.
One guy, an old-school engineer who spent six months resisting AI, told me afterward: "It's just been phenomenal." More on that below. Weren't there? YOU'RE SUMO (if you know, you know).
But first: a number came out this week that explains everything wrong with housing right now. And everything right about what we're building.
Let's get into it.
Today’s word count: ~1,777 words… 7 min read.
The Structural Deficit in our economy: the 4 million housing gap.
The Big Idea: America Is 4 Million Homes Short. The Gap Is Still Growing.
I call this "The Structural Deficit." It's the single number behind every housing story we cover in this newsletter and the workforce housing investment business I've built. And it just got worse.
Realtor.com's latest research puts the U.S. housing supply gap at 4.03 million homes. That's up from 3.80 million in 2024. Up from roughly 3.2 million in 2020. Up from about two million in 2015. Every year, we fall further behind.
Here's the math:
Last year, 1.41 million new households formed.
But we only started building 1.36 million homes.
A 50,000-unit shortfall on top of a deficit compounding for a decade.
Why it matters right now: A starter home now requires a household income of $86,000. The median down payment is $30,400. For a first-time buyer in their late 20s, that's a wall.
And the geography of this deficit matters. The South has the widest gap at 1.62 million homes. That's more than the Northeast (952,000), Midwest (865,000), and West (660,000). The region with the fastest population growth also has the deepest hole to climb out of. That's where I operate. That's where the opportunity is.
Even under the most optimistic construction scenario, it would take seven years to close this gap. Seven years assumes we build faster than we've built at any point since the 2008 financial crisis. Realistically? We're looking at a structural housing shortage that persists through the end of this decade.
What this means for you (and me too):
Renters and homebuyers: I won't sugarcoat it. This deficit means prices stay elevated and competition stays fierce, especially in the South. The best near-term move is to build financial readiness. Improve your credit, save aggressively, and watch for markets where local supply is actually growing.
Investors: Multifamily fundamentals stay strong. When you can't build enough homes to buy, you rent. Occupancy rates in workforce housing (apartments serving families earning 60-120% of area median income) will remain elevated. Underwrite conservatively, but know that demand isn't going away.
Developers and builders: The 50,000-unit annual shortfall is your addressable market. The builders who figure out speed to market, particularly labor and materials, will capture big market share.
Affordable housing operators: LIHTC (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit) produces roughly 110,000 units per year. That's about 2.7% of the gap annually. We need more capital and more operators. If you're already here, you're ahead.
The bottom line: The 4 million home deficit is the foundational number behind every story we cover. Tariffs, labor shortages, interest rates, zoning reform. They all connect back to this. We are not building enough homes. The gap is widening. And the South, where 1.62 million of those missing homes should be, is ground zero. That's exactly why I'm building in the Southeast.
In my firm Shieldstone, our mission to build 2,000 workforce housing units the next 24 months. That isn't a tagline. It's a direct response to the number above. Every deal we close this year and next is one small piece of a 4 million-unit problem that isn't solving itself.
Sources: Realtor.com | PR Newswire | Scotsman Guide | National Mortgage News
Join us for this month’s “Advanced Claude for Business” Workshop
Do you already have a handle of the basics in AI, and you want to learn vibe-coding, AI workflows and building your own team of AI agent employees? Stop what you’re doing and sign up here today to our Advanced Claude for Business workshop for a special discount. Reply “20% discount” for my special discount code, while supplies last.
Advanced Claude for Business, happening Mar 25 and Feb 26.
Signal vs. Noise.
✅ SIGNAL: Underwater Markets Are the Buy Signal Most Investors Miss
While most investors flee negative equity markets, the smart money is walking in. Distressed markets look scary on paper. Prices are depressed. Headlines scream danger. But for operators with capital and conservative underwriting (analyzing a deal's real cash flow, not just hoping prices recover), these are acquisition targets. The crowd runs one direction. You walk the other.
Why it matters: If you can underwrite to real cash flow and hold through a cycle, underwater markets offer entry points you won't find in "hot" metros. Contrarian discipline beats consensus comfort every time.
Go deeper: BiggerPockets
❌ NOISE: Hollywood Is Imploding. You Don't Need to Watch.
Paramount, Netflix, and Warner Bros. are in full restructuring mode. Studios are merging. Streaming economics are brutal. Layoffs are sweeping the entertainment industry. The business press is covering this wall to wall. It is genuinely the biggest corporate story outside of housing right now. And it has zero bearing on your next deal.
Why it matters: It doesn't. Not to you. Entertainment industry drama is fascinating dinner conversation. It is not an investment thesis. Keep scrolling. Keep underwriting.
✅ SIGNAL: Real Estate Fraud Hit $175MM in Losses Last Year.
The FBI reported $175 million in real estate fraud losses in 2024, with the average claim sitting at $143,000. Title insurance fraud is the primary attack vector. Wire fraud is the weapon of choice. One spoofed email. One redirected closing wire. Six figures gone. This is not abstract risk. It is happening on live transactions right now. Every week.
Why it matters: Like Ronald Reagan once said, “trust… but VERIFY.” Verify title with reputable providers. Never wire funds based on an email alone. Call your escrow officer directly using a number you already have on file. Paranoia is free. A $143K loss is not.
Go deeper: HousingWire
The Headlines Traders Need Before the Bell
Tired of missing the trades that actually move?
In under five minutes, Elite Trade Club delivers the top stories, market-moving headlines, and stocks to watch — before the open.
Join 200K+ traders who start with a plan, not a scroll.
The Numbers: $16.7 Billion.
That's how much venture capital poured into proptech (property technology) in 2025. A 67.9% increase over 2024. While Wall Street was panic-selling real estate stocks, the builders were writing checks.
Remember two weeks ago when I told you about CBRE losing 26% of its market cap after a viral "doomsday" AI report?
Here's the part nobody covered. That same quarter, CBRE's earnings were UP 15%. The stock dropped because of fear. The business grew because of fundamentals. Two different stories. Same company.
By the numbers:
$16.7B in proptech VC investment in 2025 (67.9% YoY growth)
$1.7B invested in January 2026 alone (176% increase over January 2025)
4 new proptech unicorns (companies valued at $1B+) using AI agents
26% stock drop at CBRE. 15% earnings growth. Same quarter.
Here's the thing. Someone is wrong. Either the panic sellers who dumped CRE stocks are right, and AI is a destroyer. Or the venture capitalists who invested $16.7B are right, and AI is the biggest opportunity in a generation. I know which side I'm on.
The bottom line: The money is following the builders, not the headlines. $16.7B says AI in real estate is real. Position accordingly.
Sources: Qubit Capital | WSJ | Commercial Observer
Built in Public. I Taught a Room Full of Skeptics How to Build AI Tools. Here's What Happened.
Baby Evan teaching, back in the day (2012).
So, you might know me as a real estate developer, investor, lender, recovering investment banker, political operative, MBA, girl-Dad, husband, etc. But before all of that, I was a teacher. I taught 9th grade Algebra on the the southside of Atlanta. I love education. It’s at the core of being.
Last week, I got to teach again! I hosted the first-ever Built Different Academy workshop: Fundamentals of Claude for Business. Two days. Ten attendees. Real estate agents, engineers, business partners. Live on Zoom.
We didn't do theory. We built things. Three live case studies. Two fully working apps created during the session. One AI-powered property finder for a Coldwell Banker agent in South Florida. One financial analysis dashboard for his senior partner. Built from scratch. On the call.
The best moment? My father, Alton. COO of Shieldstone. Self-described "old school engineer." He spent six months resisting AI before I finally got him in the door. His review:
"As an old school engineer, I was very reluctant. But once Evan taught me how to use Claude, it's just been phenomenal. We've been able to accomplish a lot."
Jim, a senior partner at Coldwell Banker, said it simply: "This has been a great experience. You're a great teacher."
Another attendee's closing words: "Invaluable information. I look forward to the advanced series."
That advanced series is coming. Advanced Claude for Business Techniques. Wednesday, March 25 and Thursday, March 26. Two sessions. Deeper tools. Real workflows.
Want in? Click the link above. Reply “20% Discount” to this email for my special discount code to the workshop, while supplies last.
Indelible Impact: Women’s History Month!
Catherine Bauer Wurster (1905-1964)
A 27-year-old freelance writer with no architecture degree wrote the book that created public housing in America.
In 1932, Catherine Bauer traveled across Europe on her own dime studying public housing in Vienna, Frankfurt, and Amsterdam. She came back and wrote Modern Housing (1934). It became the intellectual blueprint for the United States Housing Act of 1937. The first federal law creating public housing in America. She personally lobbied Congress, drafted legislative language, and worked with Senator Robert Wagner to get the bill passed.
Why it matters: Every LIHTC deal, every Section 8 voucher, every public housing authority in America exists downstream of the legal framework Bauer helped create. My mission to build 10,000 affordable units operates within a system she architected 90 years ago. This week we covered a 4.03 million home deficit. The framework she built to address that problem is more needed than ever.
The bottom line: One woman with a clear argument and relentless advocacy reshaped an entire industry. That's built different.
Final Thought.
4.03 million homes. That's the gap. Every deal we close, every unit we build, every policy we advocate for chips away at it. Slowly. But that's the work.
If this landed, share it with someone who needs to see the number. And if you have a take on the housing supply gap, hit reply. I read every one.
See you next week.
- Evan
Founder & CEO, Built Different & Shieldstone