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Good Tuesday morning.
First, happy belated National Doctor's Day to my wife Adolphia and all the other physicians out there!
Second, it's a Holy Week for many Abrahamic faiths. Ramadan just ended. Passover, Good Friday and Easter all are this week. More on my own reflections below.
On to the news, while the world’s been watching Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba, Congress did something it hasn't done in a decade... actually passed a real, relevant housing bill (LOL). And also buried inside it is a provision that should worry every developer and investor reading this.
Today’s word count: ~1,932 words… 8 min read.
First big housing bill in a decade just passed both houses of Congress. What’s next?
The Big Idea: Congress Finally Moved on Housing. Now Watch What Happens.
It's about damn time. The Senate passed a bipartisan housing affordability bill this week. The biggest legislative housing move in a decade. And almost nobody is talking about it.
You might remember this. I wrote about The ROAD to Housing Act not too long ago, saying it was a "Could Go Either Way" item in Signal vs. Noise. I said to watch the Senate.
Well, The Senate moved. So here we are. It's now the Big Idea.
What passed. On paper, it's everything the industry has been asking for.
More funding for affordable housing construction
Faster permitting in high-cost markets
New tax incentives for workforce housing development
The National Housing Conference, a nonpartisan policy organization that's been around since 1931, called it "the most significant bipartisan housing legislation since the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008." That's not a small claim.
Here's the catch. Anti-BTR language got slipped into the bill. BTR is build-to-rent. Think purpose-built rental neighborhoods, townhome communities, and single family subdivisions all designed for renters.
NMHC (the National Multifamily Housing Council, the industry's largest trade group representing over 1,000 member companies), where I'm a member, is sounding the alarm. NMHC's position is clear.
The bill restricts the exact housing type the market needs most. We have a 4 million home deficit. And Congress is telling developers they can't build one of the fastest-growing solutions to close it. That should bother everyone.
Now for the political paradox. I call it the Homeowner's Paradox. Making housing affordable means home prices come down.
Home prices coming down means 65% of Americans who already own homes see less appreciation. Every member of Congress knows this. Trump said it plainly at Davos: "If I wanted to crush the housing market, I could do that so fast... but you would destroy people who already have houses." That's the tension. Nobody wants to say it out loud. I just did.
Here's the other thing. Midterm elections are 11 months away. We're in the middle of Primary season, as we speak. Every congressperson who voted yes is betting that "I fought for affordable housing" plays better with voters than "your home value might flatten." Maybe it does. Maybe it doesn't. But I think the midterms have a lot to do with the timing.
And you might have missed this entirely.
Venezuela. Military operations and diplomatic standoffs.
Iran. Ongoing conflict and oil market disruption.
Cuba. New tensions emerging.
All three are dominating the news cycle. This housing bill barely registered. A 430-upvote thread on Reddit's r/Economics had more visible discourse than most mainstream outlets. That tells you something about where housing ranks in the national conversation right now. I'm frustrated about it.
What this means:
Investors: the new tax incentives could meaningfully improve deal math on workforce housing. But the anti-BTR provisions could kill pipeline for single family rental developers. Read the actual bill text before you underwrite around it.
Developers: if you're building multifamily affordable housing, this is tailwind. If you're building BTR, watch the House markup closely. NMHC is lobbying hard to strip the anti-BTR language before it reaches the President's desk.
Affordable housing advocates: this is a win. Imperfect, but real. The funding expansion matters. Push your representatives to protect it in the House.
Everyone else: housing policy affects your rent, your mortgage, and your neighborhood. This bill will shape what gets built and where for the next decade. Pay attention even if the news cycle isn't.
The bottom line: Congress moved. Finally. But they snuck in language that restricts the very housing we need most. The bill still has to clear the House. If you care about housing in this country, whether you're a builder, an investor, or a person who pays rent, now is the time to pay attention. Not after it's signed. Now.
I spoke at the IMN conference in Florida last week on exactly this topic. Affordable housing is personal for me. My entire pipeline, 2,000 workforce housing units, especially the BTR deals, is directly affected by what happens next. This isn't abstract policy. It's the deals on my desk.
Sources: NHC: "2026 Could Be the Year of Housing in Congress" | NHC: "The Senate Is Not the Enemy" | Reddit r/Economics (430 upvotes, 107 comments)
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Let’s cut through the “Signal” vs the “Noise” in this past week’s headlines.
Signal vs. Noise.
✅ SIGNAL: AI Just Entered the Home Search Box.
Realtor.com now lets buyers search for homes through ChatGPT. Ask it about neighborhoods, affordability, school districts. It pulls insights from ChatGPT but routes you back to Realtor.com for actual listings. This is the first major portal deploying consumer-facing AI at scale.
Why it matters: The deeper story is what ChatGPT can't access. The MLS (Multiple Listing Service, the shared database of homes for sale) still bans AI companies from training on its data. So buyers get the vibes but not the inventory. For now, agents keep their grip on listings. But "for now" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.
Go deeper: HousingWire
⚠️ COULD GO EITHER WAY: Immigration's Housing Impact Cuts Both Directions.
Inman (a real estate industry trade publication) published an interactive map showing which U.S. markets lost the most residents and saw the steepest drop in immigration.
Double hit. Meanwhile, Canadian social media is blowing up with the same debate. A post linking immigration to housing unaffordability pulled 549 likes and 92 retweets. This is now a cross-border conversation.
Why it matters: For investors, reduced immigration means softer demand in gateway markets. For renters, fewer new arrivals could eventually ease pressure on workforce housing. Both things can be true. The politics will be loud. The data will be quieter. Follow the data.
Go deeper: Inman
The big “Number” we should focus on this week.
The Numbers: $20,000,000,000.
That's the monthly trading volume on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Per month. Up from $1.2 billion in early 2025.
What started as sports betting has evolved into something much bigger. And much stranger. People are now placing bets on Fed rate decisions, geopolitical conflicts, and government operations. A single market, "Will the US strike Iran by February 28?", attracted $73 million in trades.
Here's where it gets uncomfortable. In the hours before the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, six newly created accounts on Polymarket collectively earned roughly $1.2 million.
One account, operating under the name "Magamyman," placed its first trade 71 minutes before the news broke. Profit: $553,000. Another account turned $38,500 into $485,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro. Hours before a covert military operation was announced.
Federal prosecutors are now investigating whether prediction market bets trip insider trading laws. People have been arrested in Israel for using classified information to trade. Senator Chris Murphy introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban betting on sensitive government operations.
🧮 By the numbers: Kalshi has maintained a perfect forecast record on Fed rate decisions since 2022, beating professional forecasters. The Federal Reserve itself published a working paper validating Kalshi's data. The industry is on pace for $200 billion in annual volume.
The bottom line: Here's the question for our world. If prediction markets are better at forecasting Fed rate decisions than Wall Street analysts, should you be watching them? If someone can profit $553,000 in 71 minutes on a geopolitical event, what does that tell you about who has information and who doesn't?
These markets are revealing something about the integrity of information in our economy. Whether you trade on them or not, you should be paying attention to what they're telling you.
Sources: CNN: Federal Prosecutors Exploring Prediction Markets | Fortune: Kalshi's Perfect Fed Forecast Record | TRM Labs: $21B Monthly Volume
Built in Public: Takeaways from my recent speaking gig (Part 2)
🔨 The Part of My IMN Panel Nobody Expected.
Last issue I shared the four pillars of making public-private partnerships work in Florida. Time, money, tax exemptions, vouchers. This week, the deeper cut.
After the panel, a developer pulled me aside and asked: "How do you actually get a housing authority to co-develop with you?" Fair question. Most people in the room didn't even know that was an option.
Here's the playbook. Housing authorities aren't just voucher administrators. Many of them have real balance sheets. Land. Existing buildings. Access to below-market financing. And they are actively looking for private partners who know how to build.
What most developers get wrong: they approach housing authorities like a bank. "Give me money." That's backwards. You approach them like a joint venture partner. "Here's a site. Here's the deal structure. Here's what you bring. Here's what I bring. Here's how we both win."
When a housing authority is on your deal in Florida, certain tax exemptions become automatic under state statute. Many other states have similar statutes, which works in our favor. No municipality negotiation required. No political risk. It's baked into the law. That alone can move a deal from "doesn't pencil" to "let's close."
This is exactly the kind of structure the Senate housing bill would expand nationally. If it passes the House. Big if.
If you're a developer or investor and you've never had a conversation with your local housing authority, start there. That's my actionable for this week. Pick up the phone.
Indelible Impact: A moment of reflection on this Holy Week.
This week is different. No historical figure. Just a moment to pause and reflect.
Ramadan ended last week. Passover began this week. Easter is this Sunday. Three traditions, three faiths, one overlapping season. All centered on the same idea: sacrifice and reflection.
I'm a person of faith. No judgment on anyone who isn't. But for those of us who are, this season hits differently when you're building something.
Right now, for my wife Adolphia and me, sacrifice looks like late nights and early mornings. It looks like building a business this year so our girls have a home that's stable, sustainable, and full of the things that matter. Not things. Presence. Safety. Opportunity.
That's what I'm building for. That's what this newsletter is about, really. Housing isn't just deals and policy and numbers. It's the place where families happen. Where kids grow up. Where sacrifice becomes something you can see and touch.
Whatever you're honoring this week. However you practice. I hope you find a moment to be still.
Ramadan Mubarak to everyone who just completed the fast. Chag Pesach Sameach. And Happy Easter to my fellow Christian readers.
Final Thought.
The Senate moved on housing. If that matters to you, whether you're a builder, an investor, a renter, or just someone who cares, forward this to someone who should know.
Hit reply and tell me what you think about the bill. I read every response.
See you next week.
-- Evan
Founder & CEO, Built Different & Shieldstone